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Prediction for CME (2013-04-11T07:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-04-11T07:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/154/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-04-13T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Dst min. in nT: -11
Dst min. time: 2013-04-15T03:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-04-14T03:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.33 - 7.33
Predicted Dst min. time: 2013-04-14T09:00Z
Prediction Method: BHV
Prediction Method Note:

(Arrival Prediction by Volker Bothmer, submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
http://www.affects-fp7.eu/weather/
On Apr 12, 2013, at 11:47 AM, Volker Bothmer wrote:
On April 11 around 07 UT SOHO and STEREO detected the onset of a CME near CM. The estimated speed of it is 603 km/s in the STEREO/COR2-B field of view. Using the BHV prediction method yields an arrival time of April 14, 03 UT with an in-situ speed of 500 km/s. Based on the B&S flux rope scheme the CME is predicted to be of ENW (SEN) type. A geomagnetic storm is forecasted for April 14, 03 - 15 UT, with a magnitude of about Kp 7+.

Lead Time: 30.42 hour(s)
Difference: -4.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-04-12T15:47Z

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